Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.229315 2.339660 2.457146 2.592399 2.744918 2.912962 3.114093
2025-04-06 2.034380 2.177328 2.336475 2.529328 2.760417 3.033697 3.390161
2025-04-13 1.912955 2.074187 2.259208 2.491723 2.783281 3.148066 3.660554
2025-04-20 1.855381 2.035186 2.247250 2.522994 2.884484 3.363960 4.095910
2025-04-27 1.826410 2.025200 2.265831 2.589375 3.033321 3.660758 4.717789
2025-05-04 1.775057 1.982936 2.239161 2.592031 3.092918 3.836995 5.200921
2025-05-11 1.730454 1.945522 2.214813 2.593673 3.148453 4.013007 5.743548
2025-05-18 1.669644 1.884068 2.155009 2.541003 3.116929 4.041691 6.005116
2025-05-25 1.630568 1.848319 2.126585 2.529312 3.144814 4.173043 6.546006
2025-06-01 1.593393 1.813155 2.096718 2.512774 3.162364 4.287811 7.109901
2025-06-08 1.558360 1.779214 2.066595 2.493376 3.172602 4.389863 7.707289
2025-06-15 1.540616 1.767097 2.065274 2.515704 3.252686 4.642240 8.993452
2025-06-22 1.498342 1.722015 2.017986 2.468423 3.214535 4.654540 9.493670
2025-06-29 1.456843 1.676821 1.969015 2.416228 3.164027 4.633923 9.872848
2025-07-06 1.424021 1.642274 1.933647 2.382976 3.143929 4.677719 10.639293
2025-07-13 1.412809 1.636384 1.938197 2.411499 3.236513 5.000919 13.711351
2025-07-20 1.411684 1.643969 1.961988 2.471622 3.394761 5.542703 22.752985
2025-07-27 1.393834 1.627845 1.950641 2.474028 3.442574 5.811600 36.141717
2025-08-03 1.376750 1.612200 1.939272 2.475513 3.488552 6.094880 97.583998
2025-08-10 1.347057 1.578195 1.899688 2.427856 3.429468 6.031337 149.108570
2025-08-17 1.328797 1.559755 1.882608 2.417262 3.446662 6.227168 NaN
2025-08-24 1.310240 1.540419 1.863538 2.402268 3.453097 6.391651 NaN
2025-08-31 1.291842 1.520865 1.843530 2.384665 3.452296 6.532948 NaN